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John Anzalone highlighted in Politics Magazine's Movers & Shakers!

You can read the interview here.

Alabama Democrat Toes the G.O.P. Line

NYT REPRINTS FORM

By CAMPBELL ROBERTSON
Published: January 3, 2010

ANDALUSIA, Ala. — Among the men who gather every morning at 6 o’clock at the Church’s Chicken here on Three Notch Street, there is general agreement that the Obama administration is doing a very bad job of running the country. And the stakes are as high, as one coffee drinker put it, as the survival of the country’s culture, economy and way of life.

Many of those who meet mornings at Church's Chicken in Andalusia, Ala., don't like Barack Obama but are fond of Bobby Bright.

Yet this group is represented in the House by a Democrat, Bobby Bright. And they are actually fond of him. For now.

“I like Bobby,” said Glenn Cook, 72, a retired electrical engineer. “I think he’s a great guy and a fine Christian man. But when he first came out, I wished that he’d been a Republican.”

In the deep-red states of the South, it is very hard these days to be a Blue Dog, as members of the group of 52 centrist House Democrats are known. Suspicions about the Obama administration’s expansive view of government power have made the Democratic label so toxic in some parts of the South that merely voting like a Republican — as many Blue Dogs do — may no longer be enough.

If that is true, Mr. Bright recently became Alabama’s sole test case.

On Dec. 22, Representative Parker Griffith, a freshman representing the northernmost district in the state, announced that he was switching to the Republican Party. His defection was a bad sign for Democratic hopes of retaining seats in the South, specifically in Alabama, which has moved ever more securely into the Republican column since the mid-1960s, after the Civil Rights Act of 1964 permanently altered Southern politics.

Gratitude still abides in Mr. Griffith’s district for President Franklin D. Roosevelt’s creation of the Tennessee Valley Authority, which is one reason voters there have not sent a Republican to Congress for over 140 years. Mr. Griffith’s calculation that he probably could not win as a Democrat indicates that the hostile reaction to Democrats over the past year has been intense enough to turn an already deeply red state — one that President Obama lost by more than 20 percentage points in 2008 — even redder.

And it leaves, standing alone as the sole white conservative Democrat in the state’s Congressional delegation, Mr. Bright, 57, who represents the men in Church’s Chicken. Mr. Bright has announced no plans to switch parties. If one counted only by his voting record, it would not seem to make a difference anyhow.

“Bright and Parker won, despite the poor showing of Obama, because they are conservative and therefore not open to attack from Republicans on social issues like abortion, prayer, guns and taxes,” John Anzalone, a Montgomery-based Democratic pollster, wrote in an e-mail message.

Mr. Anzalone argued that Mr. Griffith’s calculation was likely to end up hurting him, since he now has to face a Republican primary, while Mr. Bright’s conservative record could potentially expand his base.

Mr. Bright’s victory in 2008, the first by a Democrat in this district for nearly 45 years, was something of a fluke. He is uniquely qualified: a former mayor of Montgomery, he was popular in the largely black areas in his district that are near the city. But he was born the 13th child of a poor sharecropper in the quiet country to the south, a largely white region of peanut farms and cotton fields known as the Wiregrass. The area is deeply conservative, but it likes its own, and Mr. Bright is one of them.

The huge turnout by black voters in the 2008 election, coupled with some infighting on the Republican side, resulted in Mr. Bright’s winning the Second District by less than 1 percentage point.

Since winning, Mr. Bright has been such a purebred Blue Dog that he is practically red. He has voted with the Republicans on every significant piece of legislation of his term, including the health care overhaul, the budget and the “cap and trade” energy legislation. The reaction to his rare party-line votes helps explain why: a largely pro forma vote to keep Nancy Pelosi as speaker of the House has drawn the ire of some of his supporters.

But staunch Republican voters in his district point to the advantages of having a Democrat in Washington: Mr. Bright is constantly making the rounds — because he has to — and he votes like a man who knows he is being watched.

“I don’t believe that Bobby would survive if he didn’t vote conservative in this district,” said Mike Barefield, 60, a conservative and normally Republican voter in Ozark who supports Mr. Bright. “It doesn’t take but one or two votes to change people’s minds.”

Mr. Bright declined to comment for this article.

Political analysts say Mr. Bright is smart to pay attention to the Wiregrass voters. He might not be able to count on such an enormous turnout among black voters in 2010 — even if, as is possible, Representative Artur Davis becomes the first black Democratic nominee for governor in Alabama history — leaving Mr. Bright to depend on people who normally vote Republican, a tall order.

“The average guy out there walking the streets, he doesn’t know how anybody votes,” said Larry Lee, who has run for the seat as a Democrat three times. “They hear all this stuff about Obama’s making us all socialist and Pelosi’s riding a broomstick to work. I think he’s going to have a very tough row to hoe.”

The Republican Party is backing a Montgomery city councilwoman, Martha Roby, but so far few in the Wiregrass know her name.

“How do you campaign against a Democrat who votes like a Republican?” asked Cleveland Poole, the chairman of the Butler County Republican Party.

Mr. Poole thought about that and answered with another question: “When Nancy Pelosi finally comes down to him and says, ‘We’ve given you a pass on all this other stuff, I need you now,’ is he going to go with the party?”

Conservative voters in the Wiregrass have considered that prospect, and it gives serious pause to defenders of Mr. Bright.

At the same time, there are such things as white liberals in southern Alabama — staunch union members and the few remaining yellow dog Democrats — and they are not so patient.

“To me, he’s of no value to the Democratic Party,” said C. T. Weed, 75, a retired contractor at the Fort Rucker Army base and now mayor pro tem of Pinckard. “If you’re going to be a Baptist, be a Baptist.”

At Church’s Chicken, the token Democrat, Rayford Davis, a 69-year-old retired insurance agent who is known as Pee Wee, is a little more forgiving. He says that the resistance to the Obama agenda around here is based on racial prejudice, and that Mr. Bright, over time, could bring his constituents around.

The others bristle at accusations of racism and say the problem is Mr. Obama’s crowded agenda of major changes, with the potential deal breaker being the health care bill.

“If it passes, there’s going to be people who will go against Democrats no matter how he voted to try to get them all out,” said Mr. Cook, adding that he supports Mr. Bright, cautiously.

But while some Republicans who back Mr. Bright do not want him to switch parties, considering it a sign of untrustworthiness, Mr. Cook is among those who would welcome it. In that case, he would not have to temper his support.

“If Bobby switched to the Republicans,” he said, “I’d put a sign in my yard.”

Recent polling by Anzalone Liszt Research was highlighted on the Rachel Maddow Show.

You can view the segment here

Shop Talk: Leading the War Against Wilson

By Shira Toeplitz
Roll Call Staff
Sept. 17, 2009, 12 a.m.

Rep. Joe Wilson’s (R-S.C.) likely opponent, 2008 Democratic nominee Rob Miller, has a completely new consulting team in place this cycle after holding the Congressman to his lowest winning percentage yet last year.

Both Wilson and Miller have raised at least $1.5 million each since the Republican shouted “You lie!” during President Barack Obama’s joint address to Congress last week. Following the outburst, the race has become a top-tier endeavor for consultants on both campaigns.

This time around, Miller has tapped Peter Cari and Maura Dougherty of Envision Communications to do his media, Jeff Liszt of Anzalone Liszt to be his pollster and Emily Parcell of MSHC to be his mail consultant, according to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

Miller had a completely different stable of consultants in 2008, when he lost to Wilson by 8 points. Miller used Lachlan McIntosh as his general consultant, Bryan Dooley of Hamilton Campaigns for polling and opposition research, Morton Brilliant of The Strategy Group for his direct mail and Howard Mead as his media consultant for that bid.

Wilson, on the other hand, has been with at least one of his consultants since the very beginning. Wilson has worked with GOP pollster Whit Ayres of Ayres, McHenry and Associates since 1982, when the Congressman was working on the campaign of his predecessor, Rep. Floyd Spence (R-S.C.). According to Ayres, Wilson “took a chance” on a political science professor and asked Ayres to poll for Spence.

“I polled my very first poll for Floyd Spence in 1982,” Ayres said. “And Joe has been an encourager and supporter of my polling work ever since.”

Wilson’s consulting team has been working overtime and hired an extra hand to help deal with the response in the wake of the Congressman’s outburst. Brian Donahue of Jamestown and Associates has worked primarily as his media consultant since last cycle, but lately he has been doing some communications strategy and produced three online videos so far for Wilson’s campaign.

“This has been an all-hands-on-deck environment, and the team has meshed very well to establish a unified and consistent response,” Donahue said.

After last week’s brouhaha, Wilson’s team also brought on new-media consultant David All to work with Wesley Donehue on online strategy for the South Carolina lawmaker.

Outburst makes money for Miller

Politico
By: Josh Kraushaar and Erika Lovley
September 11, 2009 05:11 AM EST

With one outburst Wednesday, Republican Rep. Joe Wilson immediately put himself at the top of the liberal hit list and altered the trajectory of his 2010 reelection campaign.

Prior to shouting, “You lie!” after President Barack Obama claimed his plan wouldn’t offer free health care to illegal immigrants, the South Carolinian seemed poised to cruise to a sixth term in his Republican-oriented district.But his disrespectful remark, made on national television as Obama addressed a joint session of Congress, has suddenly complicated his prospects by instantly generating an avalanche of cash for his Democratic challenger and turning him into a despised enemy of the left.

Wilson is still the clear front-runner in his Columbia-area district. But Democrat Rob Miller, an Iraq war veteran, is suddenly on the national radar screen and likely to have the funds to run a competitive campaign — neither of which was necessarily true before Wilson’s fateful eruption.

“It’s a tremendous boost for this guy. He was already a credible candidate, and I think he can raise between $500,000 and $1 million that he never would have seen otherwise. Now you just keep your head down and let your opponent hang himself,” said Miller pollster John Anzalone, who represents many Democratic clients in Southern districts.

“The one thing that Southerners are big on is respect. Our kids say ‘Yes, ma’am’ and ‘Yes, sir.’ And this is a problem. In the South, this goes under the header of almost unpatriotic.”

Miller had actually run a surprisingly close second in 2008, the first time he challenged Wilson. He held Wilson to a career-low 54 percent of the vote, the first time Wilson had ever faced a credible Democratic opponent since he was elected to Congress in a 2001 special election.

This cycle, though, with more promising opportunities elsewhere and a national environment that is trending away from the Democratic Party, Wilson’s seat was not squarely on the minds of Democratic strategists. Despite getting an early start for a rematch, Miller ended June with just $48,000 in his campaign account, a sure sign that the race was a low-priority contest.

Now, however, Miller’s fortunes have changed dramatically. Within hours of Wilson’s comment, the money began pouring in. Miller raked in more than $459,000 from roughly 12,800 Democratic donors across the country in less than 24 hours, according to ActBlue, a liberal online fundraising clearinghouse where Democrats are able to donate money to their preferred campaigns.

That’s more money than many top House candidates raise in an entire three-month quarter. And it’s more than half of what he raised for the entire campaign in 2008.

Indeed, thanks to donations from angry Democrats, Miller now has more money to spend on the race than Wilson does — the incumbent ended June with only $211,000 cash on hand.

For a candidate who barely had enough to spend on staff, Miller is now poised to mount a full slate of television ads promoting his candidacy — or reminding voters of Wilson’s remark.

Republicans aren’t convinced that the episode will prove all that damaging to Wilson, who represents a seat that has been in Republican control since 1966. The 2nd District gave John McCain 54 percent of the vote in 2008 and former President George W. Bush 60 percent in 2004.

Longtime South Carolina GOP consultant Warren Tompkins believes Wilson suffered only a small short-term nick from his disrespectful outburst and believes if Democrats bring up the footage against him in the campaign, they risk bringing up the contentious subject of illegal immigration.

“It’s a rock-ribbed conservative area, and the pushback in Washington manifested itself here with the health care debate, bailout, Cash for Clunkers and the debt situation. It’s reached a fever pitch down here,” said Tompkins.

“Not that the president’s a liar, but Joe’s outrage reflects the views of his district well. It’s a solid Republican area, and he’s in line with them and is against the overreaching majority in Washington, against the march against liberal overreach.”

Anti-government sentiment also runs strong in his district, despite the fact that it includes most of the capital city. It was home to several heavily attended “tea parties,” and, over the recess, Wilson hosted town hall meetings where sentiment was overwhelmingly against Obama’s health care plans.

According to an account written by the congressman, more than 1,700 people packed into Wilson’s Columbia town hall last month, most of them in agreement with his positions on health care and illegal immigration.

Wilson has publicly noted the grass-roots outrage back home, writing on his Twitter feed recently that many of his constituents called out to him to “oppose ObamaCare” during a Labor Day parade.
One constituency with whom Miller could get significant traction is the African-American community. Blacks make up more than a quarter of the district’s population and turned out in record numbers for the 2008 election.

That high turnout rate was expected to significantly decline next year without Obama on the ballot, but Democratic strategists believe that a targeted advertisement featuring footage of Wilson referring to Obama as a liar could help attract African-American voters to the polls in 2010.

“When you take a look at [Southern] Congressmen [Charlie] Melancon, [Travis] Childers and [Bobby] Bright, that was a huge part of their victories — you start with an African-American base, and you move on to white voters,” Anzalone said. “In a nonpresidential year, this can really help your get-out-the-vote effort.”

Not all Democrats are as bullish about Miller’s chances to parlay Wilson’s sudden notoriety into victory.
Minnesota Democrat Elwyn Tinklenberg, who saw a surge of financial support in 2008 after Minnesota GOP Rep. Michele Bachmann questioned Obama’s patriotism and suggested that members of Congress “may have anti-American views” during an MSNBC “Hardball” appearance, said he is somewhat skeptical of the episode’s ability to alter the dynamics of the race.

“[Miller] has to be conscious about the conservative backlash,” said Tinklenberg, who experienced a $1 million-plus fundraising boomlet in the days after Bachmann’s remarks. “We found that people rallied to Bachmann’s defense because they saw the fundraising as a liberal media attack.”

Despite running in a strongly Democratic environment and riding a wave of national publicity, Tinklenberg still fell short — and was outspent by Bachmann.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is already hard at work attempting to raise money off Wilson. The committee sent out a fundraising e-mail Thursday asking donors to pitch in to hit a target of $100,000 in the next two days.

“Joe Wilson, already weakened by the last election, when he got less than 54 percent of the vote, despite outspending Rob Miller by more than 2-to-1, will be further damaged by his shameful outburst toward the commander in chief,” said DCCC spokeswoman Jessica Santillo.

Republicans insist the overnight contributions aren’t indicative of local sentiment and reflect the attitudes of liberal, out-of-state donors who aren’t in touch with South Carolina values. “These kinds of donations tend to be given in the heat of the moment,” said conservative political strategist Nino Saviano, president of Savi Political Consulting. “It’s probably coming from the liberal base and not locally within the district, but from other parts of the country. They’re driven by the left liberal blogs.”

“All this does is change the money equation. In this district, in this cycle, no amount of money puts Wilson in danger,” said one Republican operative tracking the race. “Should it be monitored to see if this calculus changes? Yes, but nothing more at this point.”

Frankly Speaking, Cao’s Candor Not Always Good

Aug. 6, 2009
By John McArdle
Roll Call Staff

Rep. Anh “Joseph” Cao (R-La.) has developed an interesting habit of delivering his own unique brand of traight talk, even if what he’s saying isn’t exactly in the best interests of his Congressional career.

The latest example of Cao telling it exactly like it is came this past weekend, when he was discussing the reasons why he intends to vote against a health care reform bill when it eventually comes to the floor.

According to the New Orleans Times-Picayune, Cao — a former Jesuit seminarian and the first Vietnamese-American Member of Congress — said the bill would be a “no-go” for him unless it contained language prohibiting the use of federal funding for abortions.

“I do fully understand the need of providing everyone with access to health care, but to me personally, I cannot be privy to a law that will allow the potential of destroying thousands of innocent lives,” he said.

But Cao didn’t stop there.

“I know that voting against the health care bill will probably be the death of my political career,” he said, “but I have to live with myself.’”

That kind of statement doesn’t exactly play well with would-be donors, and it only gives more fodder to Democrats looking to portray Cao as an accidental Congressman who lucked into his job representing a majority black New Orleans district.

“Representative Cao’s candid confession that he votes with the Republican Party ... against the best interests of Louisiana shows how out of touch Cao is with his district,” Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesman Jessica Santillo said Tuesday.

It’s unclear whether Democrats will have another large and messy primary in the 2nd district.

State Rep. Cedric Richmond (D), who was one of six Democrats to challenge Jefferson in the primary last year, is already in the race and recently submitted his 2010 statement candidacy with the Federal Election Commission. Richmond said he’s confident that a multicandidate primary can be avoided next year.

“As I walk around and campaign and go to churches, it’s clear the community wants a consensus candidate. You will not see the crowded primary with four elected officials,” Richmond said.

But state Rep. Juan LaFonta (D) has said he’s also running, and he plans to file with the FEC in October, at the beginning of the third fundraising quarter.

LaFonta, who, like Richmond, is black, said Tuesday that he’s heard of an effort by some African-American leaders in the district to try to limit the field so that only one black candidate runs in the 64 percent black district, but he said he doesn’t believe the nomination should be “gift-wrapped” for any one contender.

Other Democratic names that have been mentioned in the 2nd district include state Rep. Karen Carter Peterson, who challenged Jefferson in 2006. Some national party insiders believe that state Sen. Cheryl Gray Evans (D) would be the party’s strongest candidate.

Rather than championing a particular candidate in the 2nd district, the DCCC seems content simply keeping the pressure on Cao.

Over the August recess, the DCCC will be running ads on black radio stations attacking Cao for not supporting President Barack Obama’s efforts to overhaul the health care system. In February, the DCCC ran radio ads in the district attacking Cao for not supporting the president’s economic recovery efforts.

Last weekend wasn’t the first time Cao has probably been a bit too truthful for his own political good.

Cao won his seat in Congress last year by beating then-Rep. William Jefferson (D) — who was found guilty Wednesday of 11 criminal charges in his federal bribery and corruption case — in a general election that took place in early December because of a revamped Louisiana election calendar. Turnout was incredibly low, and shortly after his victory Cao admitted in an interview that a larger turnout would have hurt his chances of winning in a district that has long been a Democratic stronghold.

In the wake of his remarks this weekend, Cao quickly dropped off the radar. His spokeswoman said the Congressman was with his family and couldn’t be reached for comment. A spokeswoman at the National Republican Congressional Committee also declined to offer any comment.

Meanwhile, Cao’s supporters had to spend part of their week insisting that the Congressman was still interested in running for re-election.

A Republican strategist close to Cao insisted that he was not implying that he was throwing in the towel on his Congressional career. However the strategist admitted that in the wake of his remark, Cao “needs to show supporters and donors that he wants to continue to represent the district.”

A fundraising setback would be the last thing Cao needs after picking up a bit of momentum during the second quarter of the year.

After raising less than $150,000 during the first quarter and reporting an unimpressive $61,000 in the bank on March 31, Cao last month reported $370,000 in receipts in the second quarter and almost $340,000 in cash on hand as of June 30.

While his first-quarter report included donations from just a handful of fellow Republican lawmakers, Cao’s second-quarter report had checks from more than 15 Republicans, including Minority Leader John Boehner (Ohio) and Minority Whip Eric Cantor (Va.).

Political Firms Find D.C. Office Means Business

July 23, 2009
By Shira Toeplitz
Roll Call Staff

While it’s commonplace for candidates to run as far away as possible from the “gone Washington” label, lately more and more political consulting firms are embracing it.

Some firms have shied away from setting up shop in Washington, D.C., in order to maintain an outside-the-Beltway image for prospective clients. But several, especially Democratic, firms have bucked that philosophy recently and set up offices in the nation’s capital.

Fresh off back-to-back winning election cycles, Democratic consulting firms have found that a D.C. office can be a helpful tool in dealing with some of their top clients — who are now Members of Congress.

Dover Strategy Group, which has several offices around the country, found that without a D.C. office it was hard to offer its winning clients — such as Reps. Debbie Halvorson (D-Ill.) and Harry Mitchell (D-Ariz.) — services once they became Members.

“After the 2008 elections, we didn’t have a D.C. office,” said partner Mark Nevins. “We didn’t have the services needed to help those clients once they were elected. So we figured out we needed to expand our services to provide assistance to people who won.”

Dover hired a fundraising specialist, Meghan Gaffney, to help its Member clients with call time in the District. By the time another of their clients, Rep. Mike Quigley (D-Ill.), won a special election in April, Dover was able to help him with call time as soon as he arrived in D.C.

The Baughman Company, a San Francisco-based Democratic mail firm, put D.C. political veteran Achim Bergmann in charge of opening its national office in May. Now that the firm has done work for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s independent expenditure arm, it figured an office within walking distance of Democratic National Committee headquarters would be good for business.

“It’s efficient to have an outpost in Washington so, as people are coming through, it’s easy to have an avenue to reach them,” Bergmann said.

However, according to committee staffers on both sides of the aisle, having a D.C. address does not necessarily put a firm in a better position to get business from the party’s campaign committees or candidates.

“My guess is that it helps them marginally with candidates who come here so often, but it has almost zero bearing on us as far as committee work,” said a Republican committee staffer.

The staffer said the committees already have a strong opinion about which firms they would like top candidates to use, and location doesn’t matter.

A Democratic committee staffer echoed that notion, saying there are many good consultants both outside and inside the Beltway, adding that for campaigns it’s often “good politics to use someone from that state.”

“Geographically, it often helps because it is the center of the political universe to be in D.C.,” said the Democratic staffer. “At the same time, there are a lot of great consultants — and a lot of not-so-great consultants — out there in the field.”

California-based Strategic Perception is known for producing creative TV ads for Republicans, including Sens. John Cornyn (Texas) and Lamar Alexander (Tenn.), plus its work on several presidential campaigns. The firm’s chairman, Fred Davis, said he fought having a Washington, D.C., office for years because he liked his firm being associated with the creative film capital of the country — Hollywood.

“I always thought that one of our unique selling features was the fact that we were not constricted by the Beltway mentality and therefore our advertising would be more mainstream American and would be more Budweiser-like than typical political-like,” Davis said.

But in February, Davis caved in and hired Brian Nick, who was a top aide to former Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R-N.C.), to open and run the firm’s D.C. office. Above all, he said it helps to have someone in Washington who can network with potential clients and candidates after the workday is done.

“I don’t know another industry other than politics that places such an emphasis on what happens after 6 p.m.,” Davis said.

What’s more, because of campaign finance regulation changes in the past decade, there are more third-party groups based in D.C. who are looking for consultants, such as political action committees, independent expenditure operations and trade associations.

Adelstein-Liston is a Chicago-based Democratic media firm that had been known primarily for its work in Illinois, for clients such as Rep. Melissa Bean (D). But the firm branched out across the country in recent years, working for Reps. Suzanne Kosmas (D-Fla.) and Harry Mitchell (D-Ariz.).

This spring, Adelstein-Liston tapped Raghu Devaguptapu to open and run its D.C. office. With experience working at several Democratic organizations such as the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees, Devaguptapu knows firsthand that having a D.C. office is important when it comes to landing association clients.

“Much of the association work is based out of Washington, D.C.,” Devaguptapu said. “It’s advantageous to be here to work more closely with them.”

Alabama-based Democratic pollster John Anzalone recently hired a vice president to run his D.C. office because, he said, it was good for business — and business is good. With Democrats on a winning streak these past two cycles, Anzalone Liszt Research now boasts a client list that includes 21 Members and works with the DCCC, Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and the Democratic Governors Association.

“And then we became part of the [Barack] Obama polling team, and he won and there were all of a sudden even more opportunities beyond just candidate elections,” Anzalone said.

Aside from Davis, a handful of other GOP firms have also opened up shop in the District recently.

Erik Brown runs a direct-mail and consulting shop based in California, but he recently opened a D.C. office to expand his business to political causes in other states.

“We’re really going after constituent services, franked mail, and that sort of thing,” Brown said. “Having that point of contact opens up doors of opportunities to connect with PAC directors, trade associations, professional fundraisers and issue advocacy groups — people who need to get their message out.”

So far, Brown reports that his firm does franked mail for a couple of Members and two trade groups, the American Society of Anesthesiologists and a group representing ophthalmologists. He also said they have expanded to work on Congressional races in North Carolina and South Carolina and possibly New York this cycle.

The New York Times has released an article on Anzalone Liszt Research client Artur Davis and mentions John Anzalone. Read the article HERE

John Anzalone quoted in a recent Roll Call Article

GOP Bullish in Two Alabama Districts

May 26, 2009
By John McArdle
Roll Call Staff

Two recent developments in a pair of Alabama Congressional districts controlled by Democratic freshmen have state and national Republicans excited about the prospect of a double Republican pickup deep in the heart of Dixie.

With GOP candidates now in both races, the party’s efforts to capture those seats are officially under way.

The more heralded of the two recruits was Montgomery City Councilwoman Martha Roby (R), who filed last week to challenge Rep. Bobby Bright (D) in the 2nd district.

Roby was heavily courted by National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Pete Sessions (Texas) this cycle despite the fact that state Rep. Jay Love — the man the committee dropped nearly $600,000 in independent expenditures on last cycle — hasn’t ruled out running again.

More under the radar is the candidacy of Navy veteran Lester Phillip, who was the first GOP candidate to file in the northern Alabama 5th district of Rep. Parker Griffith (D).

Phillip, who is black and the son of immigrant parents, works as the minority outreach director for the state Republican Party. He was making the rounds on Capitol Hill last week and has also begun to make a name for himself at local Tea Party events and other conservative gatherings.

Despite the fact that the 2nd and 5th districts are areas where Republican candidates regularly dominate in presidential elections, Roby and Phillip have steep hills to climb in 2010.

Both Bright and Griffith have worked hard to establish their images as conservative Democrats who aren’t afraid to vote against their party’s leadership. Both are members of the fiscally conservative Blue Dog Coalition, and each has established voting records that are more conservative than many card-carrying Republicans.

But Republican operatives say Bright and Griffith have already failed their constituents when it comes to the the vote that will matter most on the campaign trail in 2010.

“Before this race even starts, there is one very clear distinction between these two very qualified Republican candidates and their respective Democrat opponents –—Martha Roby and Lester Phillip will never vote to anoint Nancy Pelosi the Speaker of the House as Bobby Bright and Parker Griffith did on their first day on the job,” NRCC spokesman Ken Spain said last week. “By doing so, they gave her a blank check to spend on trillions of dollars in wasteful spending and a platform to attack the CIA and undercut our military men and women fighting overseas.”

But Alabama-based Democratic consultant John Anzalone said that line of attack is a weak one.

“I’ve never seen any candidate, Democratic or Republican, lose based on their vote for Speaker,” Anzalone said. “It’s are you vulnerable on taxes, are you vulnerable on spending, are you vulnerable on social issues? That’s the big deal down here.”

From a strategic standpoint, Bright has the tougher district for a Democrat to hold.

Before Bright, Republican Rep. Terry Everett had easily held the 2nd district for eight terms, and GOP operatives continue to believe that the seat would still be in Republican hands if not for the combination of a debilitating GOP primary in 2008 and the fact that the candidacy of President Barack Obama helped boost Democratic turnout among the district’s 29 percent black population.

This cycle, it’s possible that the 2010 gubernatorial campaign of Rep. Artur Davis (D), who is black, may provide another bump when it comes to Democratic-leaning African-American turnout in the 2nd district next year.

But that may not be Republicans’ biggest problem when it comes to retaking the 2nd district.

Love got caught up in a nasty GOP primary fight last cycle with state Sen. Harri Anne Smith, and the conflict turned into a regional battle between the city of Montgomery and the rural southeast Wiregrass parts of the district. And though he emerged victorious from the primary, Love’s campaign had to start the general election from scratch financially. Meanwhile, Smith went on to endorse Bright, who, along with having served as mayor of Montgomery, has roots in the Wiregrass.

Love campaign manager Michael Lowry said that in 2010, district Republicans will have to set aside regional differences if they have any hope of knocking off Bright, who won by less than 2,000 votes in a district that Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) won by 26 points in the presidential race.

“As close as it was during the 2008 cycle it’s likely to be that close again,” Lowry said. “In order for a Republican to prevail this time in the district, Republicans are going to have to unite behind one candidate early so that they can marshal the money and the resources that it’s going to take to beat Bobby Bright.”

Roby said her first priority since filing has been to work with state and national officials to try to stave off another primary battle.

“We’ve asked for as much help as we can to clear the field,” she said, noting that one GOP primary candidate from 2008, Montgomery-based state Rep. David Grimes, has pledged his support to her campaign.

Farther north in the 5th district, Republicans operatives say they are itching for another shot at Griffith, who they believe has serious personal failures that can be exploited on the campaign trail.

During Griffith’s 2008 campaign, the toughest attacks he faced from Republicans focused on his record from his days as a doctor at Huntsville Hospital. Republican nominee Wayne Parker, along with state and national groups, alleged that Griffith undertreated cancer patients while working as a radiation oncologist at the hospital in the mid-1980s in an effort to increase profits.

But Phillip said Parker lost the open-seat contest because he got too caught up in the nastiness of that 2008 campaign. He said he plans to offer voters a conservative alternative to Griffith rather than focusing on tearing down the Congressman.

“They ran a negative campaign too long,” Phillip said. “You just can’t be negative to be negative. That drives people into the other guy’s camp. And if he’s telling his story you’re going to lose. Which is what happened.”

John Anzalone quoted in a recent article from The Hill

Polling on 'card-check' has its pitfalls

Outburst makes money for Miller

By: Josh Kraushaar and Erika Lovley
September 11, 2009 05:11 AM EST

With one outburst Wednesday, Republican Rep. Joe Wilson immediately put himself at the top of the liberal hit list and altered the trajectory of his 2010 reelection campaign.

That’s more money than many top House candidates raise in an entire three-month quarter. And it’s more than half of what he raised for the entire campaign in 2008.

Indeed, thanks to donations from angry Democrats, Miller now has more money to spend on the race than Wilson does — the incumbent ended June with only $211,000 cash on hand.

For a candidate who barely had enough to spend on staff, Miller is now poised to mount a full slate of television ads promoting his candidacy — or reminding voters of Wilson’s remark.

Despite running in a strongly Democratic environment and riding a wave of national publicity, Tinklenberg still fell short — and was outspent by Bachmann.

By Reid Wilson

Posted: 05/07/09 01:12 PM [ET]

It is the subject of multimillion-dollar pressure campaigns in Washington, but few Americans actually have solid feelings about the Employee Free Choice Act (EFCA), pollsters say.

That's because the legislation — also known as "card-check" — is notoriously difficult to adequately present to poll respondents. Pollsters say the issue, more so than most others, is overly sensitive to the way they word their questions.

"It's one of the more complex issues that we've ever faced as pollsters," Frank Newport, the managing editor of The Gallup Poll, told reporters at a breakfast sponsored by The Christian Science Monitor. "The public is unclear with the complexities of the legislation.

"This has not been a general voter fight," said John Anzalone, a Democratic pollster who has conducted EFCA polls and handled some of President Obama's polling during the campaign. "It's an insider fight for the Congress that [advocacy groups on both sides] want to make you think is being fought out among the average Joe."

That means poll results can change dramatically based on what details are given to survey respondents. And the ability to manipulate public opinion can work to both sides' advantage as they work to coax key lawmakers with their own surveys.

Business interests, which have spent millions to defeat the legislation, need to emphasize the secret-ballot angle as well as the binding arbitration provision to be successful, Newport said. Labor unions, on the other hand, need to focus on the increased ease by which the legislation would permit unions to form.

"Public opinion is still very much malleable on this issue," Newport said. "It's really going to be open to which side can get their points across."

If a pollster chooses to mention a provision in the bill that would allow unions to form after half the employees have signed a card and without a secret-ballot election, respondents are much more likely to oppose the legislation.

A CBS News/New York Times survey taken in mid-March showed 38 percent of Americans supported "making it easier for people to form a labor union by allowing them to publicly sign a card, even if that might eliminate a secret ballot." More, 45 percent, opposed that notion.

"Whenever we've tested it and the voters are aware they have to sign a card, immediately they get it," said John McLaughlin, the Republican pollster who has conducted surveys for the anti-EFCA Coalition for a Democratic Workplace. "Whether it's management or labor, they don't like being coerced."

But skip the mention of a secret ballot and the pro-EFCA side looks like the winner: A Gallup poll taken at the same time as the CBS/New York Times poll showed 53 percent of Americans favor "a new law that would make it easier for labor unions to organize workers," while 39 percent are opposed.

"In some ways, it is a race by each side to message it the way they want to," said Andrew Myers, a Democratic pollster who has tested EFCA messages for clients who favor the legislation.

Rob Autry, a Republican pollster who has conducted his own surveys for those opposed to EFCA, said the issue is more complicated than simply labeling it as an opportunity to deprive workers of a secret ballot.

"This isn't a single issue. EFCA has different components to it," Autry said, citing binding arbitration and new collective bargaining rules alongside the card-check aspect. "What I've seen work most effectively is just focusing the attention on what it means to the worker," Autry added.

"Voters actually are often contradictory in a single poll. It's true that people believe it should be easier to unionize," said Anzalone. "At the same time, the majority of people believe a secret ballot is important. So you have a kind of tension between those two things."

Pollsters for the two parties also disagree as to whether the legislation has the capacity to influence elections. Democrats point to Colorado, where business interests spent millions hammering then-Rep. Mark Udall (D) over the issue, efforts that barely scratched him on his way to a win.

"I don't see this as a winner for either side in the end ... [I]t's more of an insider debate," Myers said. "I don't think I have ever seen Democrats get punished for standing up for workers and I doubt I ever will."

But Republicans say by framing the debate in the proper way, they can benefit if the legislation ever hits the House or Senate floor.

The secret ballot and binding arbitration "are things that resonate easily with voters and motivates them," Autry said. "This has the potential to move votes. To a large degree, [EFCA] got overshadowed in the 2008 elections because there was so much else going on."

But despite the lack of a scheduled debate in either chamber, the issue is slowly creeping into voters' consciousness. "There's a growing awareness that there's something out there," McLaughlin said.

John Anzalone is quoted in a recent Roll Call article

Campaign Committees Anxious to Tap Obama's Popularity

May 5, 2009
By John McArdle
Roll Call Staff

During last week’s media frenzy surrounding President Barack Obama’s first 100 days in office, the audacity of the White House’s early policy initiatives was widely discussed.

But when it comes to the president’s willingness to engage on the political front, it is clear that he has been much more risk-averse in spending the capital with which he began his term.

“He’s a lot more cautious with his political capital than Wall Street has been with its money in recent years,” one Democratic consultant said of Obama last week.

A few Democratic insiders have even privately expressed concern that the White House has been too guarded when it comes to using Obama’s popularity to help candidates and the party’s overall cause — especially when Democrats are heading into 2010 battling historical trends.

Since Abraham Lincoln, only two newly elected presidents saw their party gain seats in Congress in the first midterm elections. On average, the president’s party has lost 30 seats in those first midterms.

So when Obama said at his White House press conference last week that — considering the challenges the country is facing — he wished he could put off the political side of his job until 2010, some Democrats were uneasy.

“I would like to think that everybody would say, ‘You know what, let’s take a timeout on some of the political games, focus our attention for at least this year and then we can start running for something next year,’” Obama said in response to a question about what has troubled him. “And that hasn’t happened as much as I would have liked.”

The president’s desire to stay away from the political game certainly caused some hand-wringing within the party during the recent special election in New York.

Heading into the final week of that contest, when polls showed Scott Murphy (D) had overcome a deficit of more than 20 points and was basically in a dead heat with James Tedisco (R), reports began surfacing that a few Democratic consultants close to the race were anxious for the White House and its political arm at the Democratic National Committee to step up their efforts to ensure the party held the seat.

In the end, Obama did step in to endorse Murphy five days before voters went to the polls, and the DNC released a television ad that featured Obama’s image the following day.

Murphy’s narrow margin of victory was only certain after weeks of recounting and recanvassing. In retrospect, some Democrats think that much of that anxiety could have been avoided.

“Hindsight is 20-20, but if [the White House and the DNC] had jumped in earlier, the election would have been decided on Election Day,” one Capitol Hill Democrat said last week.

Seven days before the March 31 election, the Republican National Committee had funneled hundreds of thousands of dollars into the race with little response from the DNC. According to independent expenditure reports filed with the Federal Election Commission, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee had spent $574,000 on the race before the DNC made its first significant investment totaling $10,000 on March 26.

Democratic consultant Steve Murphy who handled media for now-Rep. Scott Murphy (no relation) during the campaign, said the results justify the decisions that were made.

“Regardless of the timing, the president did get directly involved, the DNC did produce a television commercial, they did authorize a mailing to Democrats,” Murphy said. “We won; there’s enough credit to go around.”

Last week, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Chris Van Hollen (Md.) described the interactions between the DNC and the DCCC during the special election as “a very productive relationship.”

“Is it possible that we put together a long list and they didn’t do some of the items on the list, sure. But ... we were very pleased with the support we received from the president and the White House,” he said.

Van Hollen said that the DNC and the DCCC “are on the same page moving forward. ... We’re going to be working very closely with the Obama team and the team at the DNC going forward.”

Indeed, it is still relatively early in the 2010 campaign for Congress — even if the beginning of this cycle has been more active than most in recent memory — and to this point both parties have been focused almost exclusively on recruiting and fundraising.

If by this time next year Obama hasn’t fully embraced his role as campaigner in chief, then there might be cause for concern among Democrats.

“I don’t think there is much to [Obama’s] involvement or noninvolvement in political races other than the fact that [he has] been trying to fix a severely damaged economy in the first 100 days,” said Democratic consultant John Anzalone, who has worked with both the DCCC and the DNC in past races.

DNC spokesman Brad Woodhouse said the committee is continuing to build a strong relationship with the DCCC and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.

“We have weighed in heavily on what’s going on in Minnesota, we weighed in on New York 20, and [DNC Chairman Tim] Kaine is committed along with the president to maintaining and growing strong Congressional majorities for Democrats so we can continue to see the president’s agenda enacted in Congress.”

Woodhouse said the DNC is working to continue to energize the grass-roots network that Obama cultivated and built during his presidential run, an effort that party leaders hope will continue to pay dividends for Congressional Democrats next year.

“I think we’ve been doing a lot of tilling the soil work in putting the Republicans in a defensive posture going into 2010, which I think will help in the House and the Senate races,” he said.

And it’s not like Obama’s calendar is void of political events.

In recent weeks, the president has agreed to attend a Las Vegas fundraiser in May for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.), be at another fundraiser in Indiana for Democratic House candidates and headline a dinner in June to benefit the DSCC and the DCCC.

Per Obama’s fundraising ground rules, donations from registered lobbyists and political action committees will be barred at those fundraisers.

The DNC abides by those fundraising rules in all its activities while the DSCC and the DCCC have agreed to adhere to them only when Obama headlines events.

Without lobbyist or PAC donations it will be interesting to see if the Congressional campaign committees will be able to raise as much as their Republican counterparts did at dinners under former President George W. Bush. A strong performance would certainly demonstrate that Obama’s vaunted small-dollar and Internet-based fundraising organization will continue to be a financial juggernaut heading into the midterms.

As of the end of March, FEC reports showed that the three Republican campaign committees had a combined $20 million in cash on hand, with the lion’s share held by the Republican National Committee. The three Democratic committees were collectively more than $5 million in debt.

Some Democrats say the best thing Obama can do right now is to stay away from politics and concentrate on his policy initiatives because his success on that front is the best way for the party to succeed in 2010.

“To the extent that 2010 will be seen as a referendum on the president’s performance, the best thing he can do for Democrats also happens to be the best thing he can do for the country: continue to work to get this economy back on track,” DSCC spokesman Eric Schultz said.

But another Democratic political consultant said that if the president wants to avoid the Republican wave that washed over Congress during President Bill Clinton’s first midterms, the party should not shirk its political duties.

“Considering some of the same people are in the White House that were there in 1994, hopefully they aren’t suffering a case of amnesia and they’ve learned a lesson about their [political] responsibilities,” the consultant said. “Hopefully they know whose midterm report card will be delivered on Nov. 2, 2010 — that’s Barack Obama’s.”

Washington Post "The Fix" - April 6, 2009

Anzalone Adds

The up and coming polling firm run by John Anzalone and Jeff Liszt is increasing its profile in the nation's capital by bringing on Jeff Hogan, who oversaw the coordination of media and polling efforts in the Midwest for President Obama, as the head of its D.C. office. Prior to the Obama campaign, Hogan spent a year at the Kennedy School of Government (a Fix favorite!) and also logged five years with the polling firm Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research. "Matt's addition will allow us to further expand our client list and take on new and exciting projects in the 2010 cycle and beyond," said Anzalone who is based out of the firm's Montgomery (Ala.) office. Anzalone Liszt is fresh off a victory in the Illinois 5th district special election to replace now White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel.

Shop Talk: Making a Lizst, Checking It Twice

April 2, 2009
By Shira Toeplitz
Roll Call Staff

Democratic polling firm Anzalone Liszt Research has hired Matt Hogan to be its new vice president.

Hogan, who will oversee the firm’s Washington, D.C., office, most recently served as the media and polling coordinator for the Midwest region on President Barack Obama’s 2008 campaign. Before he hit the campaign trail, Hogan worked for five years at Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research.

“Jeff Liszt and I are very excited to bring in someone of Matt’s caliber and believe he will be a real asset to our team,” John Anzalone said.

Anzalone Liszt Research polls for two Senators — including freshman Sen. Kay Hagan (D-N.C.) — and 19 House Members, plus the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. The group recently worked for Cook County Commissioner Mike Quigley, who won a crowded Democratic primary in the Illinois 5th district special election last month and is all but certain to be the victor of next week’s special election.

Sweet (Now) Home Alabama

May 15, 2008, 12:07 p.m.
By David M. Drucker
Roll Call Staff

Sweet (Now) Home Alabama. Democratic pollster John Anzalone has had a good May.

Rep.-elect Travis Childers (D-Miss.) and newly elected Rep. Don Cazayoux (D-La.) are both clients of his, and each won a special election in what had been strong Republican districts in a part of the Deep South that had long been off-limits to Democrats running for federal office.

Childers, the Prentiss County Chancery Clerk, defeated Southaven Mayor Greg Davis (R) on Tuesday in Mississippi’s 1st district, which delivered 62 percent of its vote to President Bush in 2004. Cazayoux, then a state Representative, beat former state Rep. Woody Jenkins (R) on May 3 in Louisiana’s 6th district, a 59-percent Bush district.

Anzalone, the founding partner of the Montgomery, Ala., firm Anzalone Liszt Research, credited his success mostly to his clients, including Reps. Charlie Melancon (D-La.) and Heath Shuler (D-N.C.), who both represent districts that voted for Bush in 2000 and 2004. But he said it doesn’t hurt that he and his partner, Jeff Liszt, live and work and play among the very voters a majority of their candidates are courting.

“I’m a better pollster because I’m not in D.C.,” Anzalone said Wednesday during a telephone interview. “I understand these voters because I live with them every day.”

Over the past few years, Anzalone has become the go-to pollster for Democratic candidates running in Republican-leaning Southern House districts. He helped Shuler oust incumbent Rep. Charles Taylor (R) in North Carolina’s 11th district in 2006, and in 2004 helped Melancon win Louisiana’s 3rd district, which at the time was a Republican-held open seat.

But ironically, Anzalone is not a native Southerner.

Anzalone, 44, grew up in St. Joseph, Mich., a town of about 8,500 in the southwestern part of the state, across Lake Michigan from Chicago. He attended Kalamazoo College and ended up in politics, including an eight-year period where he alternated between Washington, D.C., and living out of his suitcase on the campaign trail.

One of Anzalone’s early bosses was Democratic consultant James Carville. He also served as the political director for Sen. Frank Lautenberg’s (D-N.J.) 1988 re-election bid.

In 1994, the same year Republicans were swept into power on Capitol Hill and won control of the House for the first time in 40 years, Anzalone moved to Montgomery.

To hear him describe it, it wasn’t some shrewd business move, but rather a purely personal decision. He wanted to live near his two sons, who were living with his ex-wife, an Alabama native (Anzalone has since remarried).

Anzalone said living in the South and running his business there have been keys to his success, helping him understand what it would take for Democrats to be successful there and how to best guide his candidates in their races against Republicans.

Anzalone said losing races during those years when Democrats couldn’t buy a victory in the South was a valuable experience.

“Getting your ass kicked for a decade, you learn a lot of things,” he said.

There is no “magic equation” behind his success, Anzalone said. For Democrats to win in the South in what has been solid Republican territory, they need to be a good fit for the voters. That often means holding pro-Second Amendment, anti-abortion rights and anti-same-sex-marriage positions.

Cazayoux and Childers both ran as conservative Democrats, and Anzalone said most of the positive press he’s getting really belongs to them, in addition to the other victorious Democrats he’s worked for in recent years.

In Mississippi, Childers highlighted what he stood for, as opposed to what he was against, Anzalone said, adding that he ran a local race that focused on issues voters were concerned about. The Republicans, by contrast, tried to run a national race tying Childers to national liberal Democrats.

“It’s a credit to the candidate,” Anzalone said of Childers in particular. “We had the strategic upper hand.”

Brian Wolff, the executive director of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said Anzalone deserves a lot of the credit — for the success of Cazayoux, Childers and many of his other clients.

Wolff described Anzalone as a pollster who is available “24/7,” whether to work with a candidate or do anything else to further the success of a campaign. He said Anzalone has a talent for helping candidates find their voice and channeling that voice into a message that works with the voters.

“Our candidates stayed on message, and that’s John’s work,” Wolff said.

Last cycle, Anzalone helped shepherd now-Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) across the finish line in first place, and did the same for Democratic Reps. Jason Altmire (Pa.), Paul Hodes (N.H.) and Ron Klein (Fla.), all of whom ousted Republican incumbents.

With this month’s special election victories of Cazayoux and Childers under his belt, Anzalone now turns his attention to clients running in targeted November races.

State Sen. Kay Hagan, challenging Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R) in North Carolina, is among his stable of 2008 Democratic candidates, as is Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright, who is running for Alabama’s open 2nd district seat; state Assemblywoman Linda Stender, who is running for New Jersey’s open 7th district seat; state Senate Majority Leader Debbie Halvorson, who is running for Illinois’ open 11th district seat; and 2006 nominee Larry Kissell, who is again challenging Rep. Robin Hayes (R) in North Carolina’s 8th.

Anzalone also continues to advise incumbent Democratic Reps. Leonard Boswell (Iowa) and John Salazar (Colo.).

Washington Post "The Fix" - May 14, 2008

WINNERS

John Anzalone: The Alabama-based pollster is the hottest commodity in the consultant business these days. Anzalone handled polling for Childers as well as Rep. Don Cazayoux, who won the Louisiana 6th District special election earlier this month. Among the other candidates in Anzalone's stable: State Sen. Kay Hagan, who is challenging Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R-N.C.) this fall; and state Sen. Debbie Halvorson, the odds-on favorite in the open-seat race in Illinois's 11th District.

Washington Post - April 6, 2008

PLAYERS

The best pollster you've never heard of is expanding his operation to the nation's capital. John Anzalone, of Anzalone Liszt Research, is opening a Washington office to be run by Marc Silverman, a senior associate in the firm. The Democratic survey research firm became among the hottest in the nation after the 2006 cycle in which it conducted polling for Reps. Heath Shuler (N.C.), Ron Klein (Fla.), Paul W. Hodes (N.H.) and Jason Altmire (Pa.) -- all of whom defeated Republican incumbents. "As our Washington-based client list has grown and we have developed a national reputation, opening a D.C. office is a natural next step for our firm," Anzalone said.

Partner John Anzalone was interviewed for the National Journal Hotline's Consultant Candids on Thursday June 21, 2007.

CONSULTANT CANDIDS: Keeping The Faith

John Anzalone is a partner at Anzalone Liszt Research, a Dem polling and public opinion research firm located in Montgomery, AL. Prior to starting the firm in '94, Anzalone worked with Frederick Schneiders Research. His campaign operative experiences include working for Dem strategists James Carville and Paul Begala in Sen. Frank Lautenberg's (D-NJ) '88 campaign. Anzalone began his political career as a research assistant at Citizens for Tax Justice, and then went on to manage campaigns in five different states, before concentrating his energies on polling for campaigns. And today, Anzalone is our "Consultant Candid."

What was your first job?
I was lucky enough to work for David Wilhelm years before he became the Chairman of the DNC. At the time he was the head of a small, non-profit public interest group called Citizens for Tax Justice. We were out there changing the world putting out reports about the top U.S. corporations that paid no federal taxes. It was those reports that helped spur the 1986 tax reform bill that finally made corporations pay a minimum tax. Wilhelm and I then went to work for Biden for President in Iowa in 1987 and I followed that with managing Wilhelm's race for Congress after Biden dropped out. Wilhelm's loss was the best thing that happened to both of us.

What is your proudest moment professionally?
Helping take back Congress in 2006 was really a great thing to be part of. We helped beat one incumbent U.S. Senator and four incumbent congressmen and the years toiling in the desert really paid off. But I would also say that some of my closest relationships with candidates that I have to this day are with people that ran really good races but came up short.

What one event in a candidate's past would pose the biggest problem in a campaign?
Campaigns lose when there are surprises. I have had campaigns that should have won, and could have won, but there was something the candidate did not reveal and when the opposition hit us with it we were playing complete defense when we could have tried to inoculate on it from the beginning. Full information is what is needed to put together a winning strategy.

If you could be in any other line of work, what would it be?
I think I would either be a stay at home mom or a church administrator. I spend a lot of time with my kids and always thought I was a better mother than father. I think it is the organizational skills that come with being a campaign person. Also, I am a big churchgoer and have always thought it would be great to be able to go to work in the splendor of a church and help people at the same time.

Negative campaigning -- good or bad?
It is all relative. Voters deserve to know the differences between candidates and even though voters say they hate negative campaigning, they sure do appreciate the information when they are provided it in focus groups. It all has to do with the presentation. If contrast or negative ads are done right and are not over the top they are completely appropriate. In 2006, I think voters wanted to know if their congressman voted with Bush 98% of the time or they voted for tax breaks for oil companies. And shouldn't the public know who is for and against things like a troop withdrawal from Iraq?

Where is your happy place?
I get up early in the morning and head to my backyard to get some quite time and reading before my four kids pounce. I also really enjoy going to early church a couple times a week and that just really sets me on the right track for the day. Strangely, I love going to get my hair cut each month because it is thirty minutes where no one can get to me.

What is your favorite restaurant to meet clients?
Living outside of DC means that I don't have to do the "lunch" thing very often. Instead I go to the gym at noon. But if you are in Montgomery, Alabama, you will get no better fresh gulf fish than at Jubilee Seafood, a hole in the wall that was written up in USA Today.

What campaign (past, present or future) would you most like to be a part of?
If any of my kids run for office I hope I am around and hope they want the old man involved.

What is the ideal number of clients to have at one time?
The key is not to be greedy. There is enough quality work out there for everyone and if you do good work and pay attention to your clients, more work will come and you will get your share.

What firm/individual who does your kind of work for the other party do you respect the most, and why?
As a pollster, I have a lot of respect for Jimmy McLaughlin and Whit Ayres. I have seen their work and it appears to be top notch.

What is the first section of the newspaper you read?
I tend to read locally before I move to the New York Times and the Washington Post. I am part of a community here and you want to know what is making things tick, whose kids are being honored, who has died, what new store or restaurant is opening, and what washed up 80s band will be playing down at the riverfront. I live outside the vacuum of DC and when I go home my neighbors are real voters.

If you could only watch one news show, what would it be?
The Daily Show. Jon Stewart has something important to say. I would recommend that every campaign, especially the presidential campaigns, make their candidates occasionally watch the Daily Show, not for the humor, but for the reality check of how you should and should not communicate. We think of Stewart as a comedian, but there are important lessons that campaigns can take away from watching his show. Balance Jon Stewart on Sundays with Tim Russert.

We're ending this feature with a question posed by the last interviewee. This is from Strategic Perception Inc.'s Fred Davis: Tell the truth: do you REALLY know what media buyers do with all that money?

Since polling is used for targeting media, I can tell the good media buyers from the mediocre, because the good ones ask for cross tabs and ask serious questions of the pollsters.

Pose a question for the next interviewee.
Where do you like to vacation after a tough election cycle?

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